High Noon in Michigan (The McCain-Romney shootout)
By jjfuller72 Posted in User Blogs — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I found this to be a HIGHLY INTERESTING article that will be printed in the upcoming July 3rd Weekly Standard. The way I see it, if the GOP can get its act together and disallow non-Republicans from the primary then McCain won't have a chance. Do we really want a nominee who depends on, and is thereby "beholden" to moderates and cross-over democrats? I know my answer.
Obviously, it's too early to call Michigan a two horse race, but recent "cold call" polling from Strategic Vision LLC showed some interesting results:
For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
John McCain 39%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Mitt Romney 15%
Newt Gingrich 3%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 3%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%,
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%
Assuming Rudy doesn't run, nobody else gets more than 3%. I'd expect Rudy's votes to be split up between mostly Romney and McCain. Add in the 12% "undecideds" make it an interesting thought that it might be just be a showdown between Romney and McCain. If they limit the primary to republicans then I think it's Romney's to lose. If a bunch of RATS cross-over to support McCain again then the fight will be on in earnest nationwide.
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Article from The Weekly Standard ^ | July 3, 2006 | Mark Hemmingway
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/012/368gtpeb.
asp
WHEN POLITICAL HANDICAPPERS START LAYING ODDS on a presidential election, the conversation inevitably turns to Iowa and New Hampshire. Their status as the first caucus and primary states remains critical, but as media scrutiny has amplified their importance, both have morphed into a kind of Heisenberg fishbowl. Otherwise humble locals, constantly harassed by marauding network TV crews to name their candidate, sometimes retort, "I don't know. I haven't met him yet."
It's no surprise political prognosticators are starting to look elsewhere for early clues about the race in 2008. Michigan's status as an important early primary state has been overlooked--until now. The Democratic National Committee is currently considering moving its Michigan primary to occur in between Iowa and New Hampshire.
Update [2006-6-25 23:16:9 by Robert A. Hahn]: Copyrighted article excerpted. Use link above.
The percentages typically are so low that it makes polls like these completely irrelevant. Much ado about nothing, if you ask me. Primaries and caucuses tend to have a curious way of making pollsters look incredibly foolish.
That being said, with Michigan being an open primary, I would be shocked if McCain didn't win. If he didn't, he might as well cash in his chips for 2008 right then and there.
BTW, most polls show that Giuliani voters often switch to McCain when Giuliani is taken out of the poll.
Which means that McCain already has a leg up on Romney even if Dems don't show up on election day in Michigan to crash our party as they did in 2000.